Prelude to Disaster (November 1941)

Commander Genda Minoru

Air Staff Officer, First Carrier Division

IJNS Akagi

November 30th, 1941

I'm certain that history will judge us favorably. After all, we have done everything in our power to avoid war with America, yet they refuse to acknowledge our legitimate position as the head of Asia. Their continued support to the Chinese government merely delays the inevitable victory of our Army and leads to more and more casualties. At the same time, their embargo has forced us to seek out those same strategic resources elsewhere, and the only place to get them is in the Dutch East Indies and in the British colonies.

To cover this strike to the south, Admiral Yamamoto is determined to destroy the US Pacific Fleet in Pearl Harbor. We have accurate intelligence from our consulate in Hawaii, our diplomats are keeping up the pretense of the possibility of a peaceful solution. We will sink the US Pacific Fleet, get our Army the six months they need to complete their conquest of the Southern Resource Area while we establish our defensive line, then we will present the Americans with a fait accompli and negotiate a settlement. At least that's what the government thinks will happen. If not, then the situation gets a lot more complicated.

I still think that we're going about this the wrong way. Just sinking the Pacific Fleet is not enough. We need to take Pearl Harbor out of the picture completely. I know a few other staffers agree with me, including fellow planner Commander Watanabe. If we follow up our attack with a ground invasion, we will not only deny the United States their main naval base in the Pacific, but also capture a large portion of their Pacific Fleet personnel, something that will greatly affect their ability to recover from the attack.

Unfortunately, the Army lacks the forces necessary for such an invasion while simultaneously launching one in the South. At the same time, we likely lack the transports to support all the operations at once, and the difficulties we are encountering with regards to refueling operations of our fleet so far beyond its standard operations area will no doubt be exacerbated.

Still, even with such limited aims, we are still risking a lot. All six of our active fleet carriers will be involved in the attack and to achieve the strike concentration required, all six must sail close together, providing an excellent target if we are discovered and the Americans are able to offer battle. While we will most likely prevail in this scenario, war is a fickle beast. Furthermore, we need every single one of those carriers to support the Army's operations in the South, to engage British naval forces in the region, and eventually to handle an American counterattack. And unlike the Americans, we cannot easily replace our ships. At least not until we get the Southern Resource Area up and running.

In any case, grand strategy is out of my hands. I should keep my mind in the present. I have confidence in my plan, in Fuchida and his flyboys, and of course the Admiral. If nothing else, our attack will be remembered as one of the most audacious in history!