A Fatalistic Outlook (May 1942)

Admiral Nagumo Chuichi

Commander, Carrier Striking Force

IJNS Yamato

3rd May, 1942

Once again, I decided to let Genda handle the wargames today. It's clear that Yamamoto doesn't value my input, and I can't oppose this operation any more without looking like a coward. The wargames are a clear indication of how the wind's blowing anyway. We've barely had month to plan this operation, one that will involve every single one of our capital ships, carriers and battleships alike, along with an Army contingent to handle ground invasions, and spread out across half of the Pacific! Yet Ugaki keeps glossing over the problems that arise during the games. Most of our staffs haven't worked together before, and we constantly run into delays or coordination failures. And that's just the staff side of the problem!

The tactical portion is clearly farcical as well. Earlier today, the staff officer playing the Red Force came up with an excellent plan. He concentrated the US carriers together and detached them from their battleships, allowing them to reach Midway far faster than we planned for. As such, they could engage my carriers in concert with land based air on Midway, hitting us in the flank while I was occupied with engaging Midway. We rolled the dice, and three carriers were sunk or heavily damaged. At this point, the invasion couldn't possibly continue without sufficient air cover. It was a sensible plan, just what I would have done if I was in the Americans' position.

But Ugaki thought otherwise. He said that those tactics were "impossible", and rewound the clock. Of course that staffer complained, but the poor young man had to shut up when Yamamoto chimed in about how the Americans were more likely to arrive in full force and attempt to relieve Midway instead.

So instead the operation goes as planned, and the land based bombers from Midway conduct an attack against my carriers. We roll the dice and Akagi and Kaga are sunk. Ugaki intervenes again, saying that that's impossible, and that only Kaga is hit, and is not even sunk for that matter, because we need it for later operations near Australia. It was at that point I gave up all hope that these wargames would have any value whatsoever. They are so obviously choreographed to fit what Yamamoto thinks should happen.

Still, he was right about Pearl Harbor. He might be right this time too. I certainly hope so, since we are in a rather precarious situation now. American resolve does not seem to be breaking, and we are in this for the long haul, we can't afford to lose any of our carriers. We have a solid advantage now, six fleet carriers to their five, and 5 light carriers to their one. Our pilots are better trained, and they have trained and fought together. But we need to gain a sufficiently large advantage as soon as possible. Other than Taiho, the other three of our fleet carriers under construction are all conversions. In the meantime, we know that the Americans are building no fewer than twelve dedicated fleet carriers. The only way to keep the odds even is to smash their entire carrier fleet now without taking any losses, and the haphazard way this operation is being executed is very worrying.

Now I am certainly not doubting the reason for this operation. Yamamoto is right, we must complete our destruction of the US Pacific Fleet while it is still weak. To do so, we must clearly draw them out of their safe haven in Pearl Harbor, and attacking Midway would certainly accomplish that task. But the Navy General Staff's incomprehensible focus on the Aleutians forces us to divide our already limited forces with our numerical advantage already being fairly slim. At the same time, due to weather conditions in the Aleutians, we must launch the attack in early June, hence the whole rush to prepare.

And planning and wargaming are just the start of our problems. Production in our naval aircraft plants have barely permitted to fully outfit the First Carrier Striking Force, but only after dangerously depleting the majority of our light carriers' airwings. As if that wasn't bad enough, Shokaku and Zuikaku are off attacking Port Moresby. They won't be able to train with the rest of the Striking Force after they get back, not to mention even though they aren't expected to encounter serious resistance, we'll probably need to deplete another light carrier for the aircraft and pilots to make up the losses.

Well, if something terrible happens, Akagi's sure to be a target, and I'll be able to go down with my ship.